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Al Fujairah SC vs Masafi — Division 1 2025

Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Masafi
Masafi
B. Cabral Barbosa 85'
H. Humaid 61'
A. Lezama 37'
A. Radovanovic 90+4', 35'
I. James 53'
4/27/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 29Fujairah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Fujairah SC43%
×Draw24%
Masafi33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fujairah SC
1.68
Masafi
1.44

Al Fujairah SC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.94
Masafi
1.32

allows per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.56
Masafi
1.42

finishing

Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fujairah SC ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al Fujairah SC or draw
67%
Al Fujairah SC or Masafi
76%
Draw or Masafi
57%

Winning margin

Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
22%
Masafi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
81%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
50%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
24%
Masafi 1+ goals
76%
Masafi 2+ goals
42%
Masafi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
57%
Masafi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fujairah SC at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.94 + Masafi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.68

Masafi attack 1.32 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Fujairah SC scores more
43%
level
24%
Masafi scores more
33%

Al Fujairah SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Fujairah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
A. Radovanovic
37'
A. Lezama
53'
I. James
61'
H. Humaid
85'
B. Cabral Barbosa
90+4'
A. Radovanovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Fujairah SC vs Masafi

Al Fujairah SC and Masafi drew 3-3 in Division 1 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Radovanovic (35', 90+4'), A. Lezama (37'), I. James (53'), H. Humaid (61'), B. Cabral Barbosa (85').

The match was played at Fujairah Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.