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Martin Ledesma vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
1 – 2
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
6/2/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Martin Ledesma43%
×Draw28%
Fulgencio Yegros29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
1.32
Fulgencio Yegros
1.03

Martin Ledesma creates 28% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
1.00
Fulgencio Yegros
0.87

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.19
Fulgencio Yegros
1.64

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
71%
Martin Ledesma or Fulgencio Yegros
72%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
57%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
20%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
73%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
38%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
15%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
64%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
28%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
60%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 1.00 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.87 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
43%
level
28%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
29%

Martin Ledesma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Martin Ledesma 1–2 Fulgencio Yegros

Fulgencio Yegros beat Martin Ledesma 2-1 in Division Intermedia on June 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá).