Martin Ledesma 0–2 Fulgencio Yegros: Result & Stats

Martin Ledesma

FT

0 – 2

Fulgencio Yegros

5/20/2017

Division Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Martin Ledesma42%

×Draw28%

Fulgencio Yegros30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martin LedesmaExpected goals in this matchFulgencio Yegros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.05

Martin Ledesma

1.29

Fulgencio Yegros

1.05

Martin Ledesma creates 23% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 48 away

0.98

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Martin Ledesma

0.98

Fulgencio Yegros

0.90

allows per match

Martin Ledesma

1.21

Fulgencio Yegros

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw

70%

Martin Ledesma or Fulgencio Yegros

72%

Draw or Fulgencio Yegros

58%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

19%

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

72%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

37%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

14%

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

65%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

28%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

58%

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more

42%

level

28%

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

30%

Martin Ledesma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff