Fulgencio Yegros 1–0 Martin Ledesma: Result & Stats

Fulgencio Yegros

FT

1 – 0

Martin Ledesma

8/27/2017

Division Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Gunther Vogel (San Lorenzo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros36%

×Draw30%

Martin Ledesma34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulgencio YegrosExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.06

Fulgencio Yegros

1.09

Martin Ledesma

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 61 away

0.85

creates per match

0.87

1.25

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros

0.85

Martin Ledesma

0.87

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros

1.25

Martin Ledesma

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw

66%

Fulgencio Yegros or Martin Ledesma

70%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

64%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

14%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

66%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

30%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

10%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

65%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

29%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

51%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

36%

level

30%

Martin Ledesma scores more

34%

Fulgencio Yegros at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fulgencio Yegros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff