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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
2 – 1
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
5/14/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 35Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv48%
×Draw24%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.69
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.23

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 37% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 99 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.82

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
0.63
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.95

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
72%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
76%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
52%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
26%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
82%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
50%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
24%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
71%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
35%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
63%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 81 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 2.44 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
48%
level
24%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
28%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritsa Plovdiv vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.