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Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
11/9/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Ivan Pritargov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas58%
×Draw22%
Maritsa Plovdiv20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.96
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.07

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 83% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 81 away

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.75
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.59

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.55
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.16

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw
80%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Maritsa Plovdiv
78%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
42%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
34%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
86%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
58%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
31%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
66%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
29%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
74%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.55 · 99 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 2.75 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.96

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.59 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
58%
level
22%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
20%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat Maritsa Plovdiv 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Pritargov in Burgas.