Maritsa Plovdiv 3–3 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Maritsa Plovdiv

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

8/13/2023

Second League · Round 5Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv48%

×Draw26%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maritsa PlovdivExpected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.00

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.46

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.00

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 33 away

1.54

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.54

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.94

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.06

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw

74%

Maritsa Plovdiv or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

74%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

52%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+

24%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals

77%

Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals

43%

Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals

18%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

63%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

26%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)

65%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.54 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more

48%

level

26%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

26%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff