Maranhão 2–0 Imperatriz: Result & Stats

Maranhão

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Imperatriz

Mikeias 54'

Ryan 45+1'

5/17/2025

League #608 · FinalsEstádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Maranhão51%

×Draw27%

Imperatriz22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranhãoExpected goals in this matchImperatriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.85

Maranhão

1.43

Imperatriz

0.85

Maranhão creates 68% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

0.91

0.80

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Maranhão

1.50

Imperatriz

0.91

allows per match

Maranhão

0.80

Imperatriz

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Imperatriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw

78%

Maranhão or Imperatriz

73%

Draw or Imperatriz

49%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+

25%

Imperatriz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals

76%

Maranhão 2+ goals

42%

Maranhão 3+ goals

17%

Imperatriz 1+ goals

57%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

21%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)

69%

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Imperatriz away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.50 + Imperatriz defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Imperatriz attack 0.91 + Maranhão defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Maranhão scores more

51%

level

27%

Imperatriz scores more

22%

Maranhão at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+6'

45+1'

46'

54'

58'

58'

Robson Negueba← Wyldson

68'

Dieguinho← Jorge

68'

Vagalume← Mikeias

73'

Bedeu← Dudu

81'

Rhuan Xinayder← Fabrício

87'

Franklin← Ryan

87'

William← Arlan

87'

Yuri← Jeferson Prill

Maranhão

Imperatriz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mikeias

⚽

▼

Ryan

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

68'▲Dieguinho←▼Jorge

68'▲Vagalume←▼Mikeias

73'▲Bedeu←▼Dudu

87'▲Franklin←▼Ryan

87'▲William←▼Arlan

Maranhão substitutes

DieguinhoVagalumeBedeuFranklinWilliamBrenoCaioEmersonJeffersonNascimentoMangaCapote

Manager: Junior Amorim

46'▲Ronny←▼Felipe Macena

58'▲Café←▼Paulo Henrique

58'▲Robson Negueba←▼Wyldson

81'▲Rhuan Xinayder←▼Fabrício

87'▲Yuri←▼Jeferson Prill

Imperatriz substitutes

RonnyCaféNeguebaXinayderYuriFreitasRosaConceiçãoGrampolaJúniorGleidson