Imperatriz 0–1 Maranhão: Result & Stats

Imperatriz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Maranhão

Will 4'

1/24/2026

League #608 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Imperatriz23%

×Draw30%

Maranhão47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImperatrizExpected goals in this matchMaranhão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.23

Imperatriz

0.77

Maranhão

1.23

Maranhão creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.45

creates per match

1.55

0.91

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Imperatriz

0.45

Maranhão

1.55

allows per match

Imperatriz

0.91

Maranhão

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imperatriz ↓

Maranhão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Imperatriz or draw

53%

Imperatriz or Maranhão

70%

Draw or Maranhão

77%

Winning margin

Imperatriz wins by 2+

7%

Maranhão wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Imperatriz 1+ goals

54%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

18%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

4%

Maranhão 1+ goals

71%

Maranhão 2+ goals

35%

Maranhão 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

33%

Maranhão (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imperatriz at home — creates 0.45, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Maranhão away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imperatriz attack 0.45 + Maranhão defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.77

Maranhão attack 1.55 + Imperatriz defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Imperatriz scores more

23%

level

30%

Maranhão scores more

47%

Maranhão at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

75'

75'

87'

87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff