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Imperatriz vs Maranhão — Serie D 2026

Imperatriz
Imperatriz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maranhão
Maranhão
Rayllan 81'
7/12/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Imperatriz49%
×Draw28%
Maranhão23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imperatriz
1.36
Maranhão
0.84

Imperatriz creates 62% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

creates per match

Imperatriz
1.66
Maranhão
0.97

allows per match

Imperatriz
0.72
Maranhão
1.06

finishing

Imperatriz+0.00on par
Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imperatriz ↓

Maranhão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Imperatriz or draw
77%
Imperatriz or Maranhão
72%
Draw or Maranhão
51%

Winning margin

Imperatriz wins by 2+
23%
Maranhão wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Imperatriz 1+ goals
74%
Imperatriz 2+ goals
39%
Imperatriz 3+ goals
16%
Maranhão 1+ goals
57%
Maranhão 2+ goals
21%
Maranhão 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Imperatriz (draw refunded)
68%
Maranhão (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imperatriz at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Maranhão away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imperatriz attack 1.66 + Maranhão defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Maranhão attack 0.97 + Imperatriz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Imperatriz scores more
49%
level
28%
Maranhão scores more
23%

Imperatriz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Imperatriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
81'
Rayllan
Imperatriz
Maranhão
Paulinho Kobayashi
Manager: Paulinho Kobayashi
Marcinho Guerreiro
Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

Serie D: Imperatriz 1–0 Maranhão

Imperatriz beat Maranhão 1-0 in Serie D on July 12, 2025.

Goals: Rayllan (81').

The match was played at Estádio Frei Epifânio D'Abadia in Imperatriz, Maranhão.