Maranhão 3–0 Imperatriz: Result & Stats | Serie D

Maranhão

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Imperatriz

Capote 77'

Mikeias 50', 23'

5/3/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Maranhão54%

×Draw26%

Imperatriz20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranhãoExpected goals in this matchImperatriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.84

Maranhão

1.54

Imperatriz

0.84

Maranhão creates 83% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.81

creates per match

0.81

0.88

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Maranhão

1.81

Imperatriz

0.81

allows per match

Maranhão

0.88

Imperatriz

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Imperatriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw

80%

Maranhão or Imperatriz

74%

Draw or Imperatriz

46%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+

28%

Imperatriz wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals

79%

Maranhão 2+ goals

45%

Maranhão 3+ goals

20%

Imperatriz 1+ goals

57%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

21%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)

72%

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Imperatriz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + Imperatriz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Imperatriz attack 0.81 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maranhão scores more

54%

level

26%

Imperatriz scores more

20%

Maranhão at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Mikeias

50'

Mikeias

77'

Capote

Maranhão

Imperatriz

⚽2

Manager: Marcinho Guerreiro

Maranhão substitutes

CapoteRomarinhoDuduBrenoCaioVitãoRadijaJeffersonNascimentoRyan

Manager: Paulinho Kobayashi

Imperatriz substitutes

CaféGleidsonNeguebaRaylsonAdrianRedsonRosaPapelRonnyJúniorFreitas

Serie D: Maranhão 3–0 Imperatriz

Maranhão beat Imperatriz 3-0 in Serie D on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Mikeias (23', 50'), Capote (77').

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.

Maranhão vs Imperatriz — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Maranhão 3–0 Imperatriz