Maranguape 1–0 Guarani De Juazeiro: Result & Stats

Maranguape

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani De Juazeiro

Doda 53'

3/26/2025

Cearense - 2 · 2nd RoundEstádio Almir Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Maranguape54%

×Draw27%

Guarani De Juazeiro19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranguapeExpected goals in this matchGuarani De Juazeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.75

Maranguape

1.46

Guarani De Juazeiro

0.75

Maranguape creates 95% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Maranguape

1.38

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.00

allows per match

Maranguape

0.50

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranguape+0.00on par

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranguape ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Maranguape or draw

81%

Maranguape or Guarani De Juazeiro

73%

Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro

46%

Winning margin

Maranguape wins by 2+

27%

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maranguape 1+ goals

77%

Maranguape 2+ goals

43%

Maranguape 3+ goals

18%

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals

53%

Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals

17%

Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Maranguape (draw refunded)

74%

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranguape at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranguape attack 1.38 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.00 + Maranguape defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Maranguape scores more

54%

level

27%

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more

19%

Maranguape at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Maranguape will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Doda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff