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Maranguape vs Guarani De Juazeiro — Cearense - 2 2025

Maranguape
Maranguape
FT
1 – 2
Guarani De Juazeiro
Guarani De Juazeiro
5/22/2022Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Francisco Cardoso de Morais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Maranguape48%
×Draw28%
Guarani De Juazeiro25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranguape
1.36
Guarani De Juazeiro
0.89

Maranguape creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

creates per match

Maranguape
1.30
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.07

allows per match

Maranguape
0.70
Guarani De Juazeiro
1.43

finishing

Maranguape+0.00on par
Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranguape ↓

Guarani De Juazeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Maranguape or draw
75%
Maranguape or Guarani De Juazeiro
72%
Draw or Guarani De Juazeiro
52%

Winning margin

Maranguape wins by 2+
23%
Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maranguape 1+ goals
74%
Maranguape 2+ goals
39%
Maranguape 3+ goals
16%
Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals
59%
Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals
22%
Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maranguape (draw refunded)
66%
Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranguape at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Guarani De Juazeiro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranguape attack 1.30 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 1.07 + Maranguape defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maranguape scores more
48%
level
28%
Guarani De Juazeiro scores more
25%

Maranguape at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maranguape will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maranguape vs Guarani De Juazeiro

Guarani De Juazeiro beat Maranguape 2-1 in Cearense - 2 on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Cardoso de Morais in Maranguape, Ceará.