Guarani De Juazeiro 0–0 Maranguape: Result & Stats

Guarani De Juazeiro

FT

0 – 0

Maranguape

10/28/2020

Cearense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Antônio Lírio Callou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Guarani De Juazeiro26%

×Draw32%

Maranguape41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani De JuazeiroExpected goals in this matchMaranguape

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.04

Guarani De Juazeiro

0.77

Maranguape

1.04

Maranguape creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

1.00

1.09

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Guarani De Juazeiro

0.82

Maranguape

1.00

allows per match

Guarani De Juazeiro

1.09

Maranguape

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani De Juazeiro+0.00on par

Maranguape+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani De Juazeiro ↓

Maranguape →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Guarani De Juazeiro or draw

59%

Guarani De Juazeiro or Maranguape

68%

Draw or Maranguape

74%

Winning margin

Guarani De Juazeiro wins by 2+

8%

Maranguape wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Guarani De Juazeiro 1+ goals

54%

Guarani De Juazeiro 2+ goals

18%

Guarani De Juazeiro 3+ goals

4%

Maranguape 1+ goals

65%

Maranguape 2+ goals

28%

Maranguape 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guarani De Juazeiro (draw refunded)

39%

Maranguape (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani De Juazeiro at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Maranguape away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani De Juazeiro attack 0.82 + Maranguape defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Maranguape attack 1.00 + Guarani De Juazeiro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guarani De Juazeiro scores more

26%

level

32%

Maranguape scores more

41%

Maranguape at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maranguape will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff