Mantova 1–1 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Carrarese

D. Bragantini 1'

L. Hasa 80'

3/1/2026

Serie B · Round 27Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova48%

×Draw25%

Carrarese27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.10

Mantova

1.56

Carrarese

1.10

Mantova creates 42% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.37

creates per match

0.95

1.26

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Carrarese

0.95

allows per match

Mantova

1.26

Carrarese

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par

Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

73%

Mantova or Carrarese

75%

Draw or Carrarese

52%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

25%

Carrarese wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

79%

Mantova 2+ goals

46%

Mantova 3+ goals

21%

Carrarese 1+ goals

67%

Carrarese 2+ goals

30%

Carrarese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

64%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mantova scores more

48%

level

25%

Carrarese scores more

27%

Mantova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

D. Bragantini

Mantova · F

8.5

Match Events

1'

40'

45+3'

45+3'

45+2'

M. Finotto← N. Schiavi

46'

N. Belloni← J. Rouhi

53'

Luis Hasa

55'

Niccolò Belloni

60'

E. Torregrossa← F. Abiuso

60'

F. Melegoni← T. Rubino

62'

D. Mensah← L. Mancuso

62'

F. Ruocco← D. Bragantini

71'

Davis Mensah

76'

S. Cella← N. Radaelli

77'

F. Zuccon← N. Buso

80'

L. Hasa↳ S. Zanon

84'

G. Parlanti← L. Hasa

90'

Federico ZucconPenalty confirmed

90+1'

Simone Zanon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaCarrarese

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots11

2.00Expected Goals (xG)0.71

6Corners9

18Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target2

7Off Target6

4Blocked3

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

261Total Passes364

177Accurate Passes258

68%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.79Goals Prevented0.79

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Serie B: Mantova 1–1 Carrarese

Mantova and Carrarese drew 1-1 in Serie B on March 1, 2026.

Goals: D. Bragantini (1'), L. Hasa (80').

Carrarese controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Carrarese — Serie B 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 1–1 Carrarese