Carrarese 0–0 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carrarese

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mantova

12/27/2025

Serie B · Round 18Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese50%

×Draw26%

Mantova25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Carrarese

1.52

Mantova

0.99

Carrarese creates 54% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.32

creates per match

1.05

0.92

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Carrarese

1.32

Mantova

1.05

allows per match

Carrarese

0.92

Mantova

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par

Mantova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

75%

Carrarese or Mantova

74%

Draw or Mantova

50%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

25%

Mantova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

78%

Carrarese 2+ goals

45%

Carrarese 3+ goals

20%

Mantova 1+ goals

63%

Mantova 2+ goals

26%

Mantova 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

67%

Mantova (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Mantova defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mantova attack 1.05 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carrarese scores more

50%

level

26%

Mantova scores more

25%

Carrarese at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Illanes

Carrarese · D

7.7

Match Events

6'

Alessio Castellini

34'

Fabio Abiuso

45+1'

Nicolò Calabrese

58'

C. Bani← A. Fiori

58'

F. Artioli← C. Falletti

58'

D. Mensah← L. Mancuso

61'

D. Bouah← N. Calabrese

61'

M. Finotto← N. Sekulov

67'

F. Melegoni← F. Di Stefano

79'

N. Belloni← M. Cicconi

79'

86'

86'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseMantova

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots7

7Corners5

14Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots7

4On Target1

10Off Target5

4Blocked1

15Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

378Total Passes349

301Accurate Passes275

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1