Mantova 2–1 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Carrarese

A. Debenedetti 83'

L. Mancuso 44'

M. Finotto 47'

5/9/2025

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova48%

×Draw25%

Carrarese27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.10

Mantova

1.56

Carrarese

1.10

Mantova creates 42% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.37

creates per match

0.95

1.26

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Carrarese

0.95

allows per match

Mantova

1.26

Carrarese

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par

Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

73%

Mantova or Carrarese

75%

Draw or Carrarese

52%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

25%

Carrarese wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

79%

Mantova 2+ goals

46%

Mantova 3+ goals

21%

Carrarese 1+ goals

67%

Carrarese 2+ goals

30%

Carrarese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

64%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mantova scores more

48%

level

25%

Carrarese scores more

27%

Mantova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Burrai

Mantova · M

7.6

Match Events

5'

Nicola Ravaglia

33'

Julián Illanes

44'

L. Mancuso↳ D. Mensah

46'

E. Zuelli← N. Schiavi

46'

L. Cherubini← T. Milanese

47'

M. Finotto↳ M. Cicconi

55'

Manuel Cicconi

55'

M. Aramu← A. Fiori

63'

Stefano Cella

65'

L. Capezzi← S. Giovane

67'

D. Bragantini← F. Galuppini

68'

A. Debenedetti← L. Mancuso

76'

Leonardo Capezzi

81'

S. Giordano← C. Bani

81'

D. Wieser← D. Mensah

83'

F. Melegoni← S. Shpendi

83'

A. Debenedetti↳ D. Bragantini

84'

Alessandro Debenedetti

88'

E. Torregrossa← G. Guarino

90+1'

Davide Bragantini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaCarrarese

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots11

2Corners4

17Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots11

5On Target1

10Off Target4

3Blocked6

11Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

495Total Passes346

428Accurate Passes260

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Serie B: Mantova 2–1 Carrarese

Mantova beat Carrarese 2-1 in Serie B on May 9, 2025.

Goals: L. Mancuso (44'), M. Finotto (47'), A. Debenedetti (83').

Mantova controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Carrarese — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Mantova 2–1 Carrarese