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Manta FC vs Leones del Norte — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leones del Norte
Leones del Norte
S. Paiva 56'
K. Arce 29'
M. Luque 68'
8/7/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 23Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Manta FC47%
×Draw29%
Leones del Norte24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.27
Leones del Norte
0.82

Manta FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 34 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.43
Leones del Norte
0.79

allows per match

Manta FC
0.86
Leones del Norte
1.12

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Leones del Norte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
76%
Manta FC or Leones del Norte
71%
Draw or Leones del Norte
53%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
21%
Leones del Norte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
72%
Manta FC 2+ goals
36%
Manta FC 3+ goals
14%
Leones del Norte 1+ goals
56%
Leones del Norte 2+ goals
20%
Leones del Norte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
66%
Leones del Norte (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

Leones del Norte away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.43 + Leones del Norte defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leones del Norte attack 0.79 + Manta FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manta FC scores more
47%
level
29%
Leones del Norte scores more
24%

Manta FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
K. Arce
56'
S. Paiva
68'
M. Luque

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Manta FC 2–1 Leones del Norte

Manta FC beat Leones del Norte 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 7, 2024.

Goals: K. Arce (29'), S. Paiva (56'), M. Luque (68').

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.