Leones del Norte 3–0 Manta FC: Result & Stats

Leones del Norte

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Manta FC

C. Solano 47'

J. Anangono 30' (pen), 16'

4/22/2026

Liga Pro · Round 10Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leones del Norte56%

×Draw26%

Manta FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.72

Leones del Norte

1.51

Manta FC

0.72

Leones del Norte creates 110% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

1.30

creates per match

0.74

0.70

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Leones del Norte

1.30

Manta FC

0.74

allows per match

Leones del Norte

0.70

Manta FC

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

82%

Leones del Norte or Manta FC

74%

Draw or Manta FC

44%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

29%

Manta FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

78%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

44%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

19%

Manta FC 1+ goals

51%

Manta FC 2+ goals

16%

Manta FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

76%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.30 + Manta FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.51

Manta FC attack 0.74 + Leones del Norte defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

56%

level

26%

Manta FC scores more

18%

Leones del Norte at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Cabeza

Leones del Norte · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

J. Anangono↳ M. De La Cruz

30'

J. AnangonoPenalty

42'

45+1'

46'

46'

47'

C. Solano↳ D. Pazmino

55'

J. Angulo← F. Asagidigbi

56'

J. Rialpe← M. Ortiz

63'

A. Mansilla← C. Solano

63'

M. Caramuto← D. Pazmino

66'

M. Valencia← J. Alman

68'

Edison Alexander Medina Caicedo

70'

Agustin Mansilla

76'

A. Aguas← S. Portocarrero

76'

E. Pepinos← C. Velez

78'

Jose Enrique Angulo

80'

Caicedo Nestor← J. Anangono

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeonesManta

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots12

6Corners5

18Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target4

2Off Target4

3Blocked4

7Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

261Total Passes385

198Accurate Passes316

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides0