Leones del Norte 1–1 Manta FC: Result & Stats

Leones del Norte

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Manta FC

T. Ibarra 8'

D. Valencia 34'

9/26/2024

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leones del Norte46%

×Draw30%

Manta FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leones del NorteExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.79

Leones del Norte

1.21

Manta FC

0.79

Leones del Norte creates 53% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.15

creates per match

0.89

0.68

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Leones del Norte

1.15

Manta FC

0.89

allows per match

Leones del Norte

0.68

Manta FC

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leones del Norte+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones del Norte ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Leones del Norte or draw

76%

Leones del Norte or Manta FC

70%

Draw or Manta FC

54%

Winning margin

Leones del Norte wins by 2+

20%

Manta FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Leones del Norte 1+ goals

70%

Leones del Norte 2+ goals

34%

Leones del Norte 3+ goals

12%

Manta FC 1+ goals

55%

Manta FC 2+ goals

19%

Manta FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Leones del Norte (draw refunded)

66%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones del Norte at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones del Norte attack 1.15 + Manta FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Leones del Norte defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leones del Norte scores more

46%

level

30%

Manta FC scores more

24%

Leones del Norte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leones del Norte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

T. Ibarra

34'

D. Valencia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff