Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

L. Gustavino 82'

8/23/2025

Liga Pro · Round 26Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Manta FC37%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cuenca37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.32

Manta FC

1.31

Deportivo Cuenca

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.05

creates per match

1.29

1.35

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Manta FC

1.05

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

allows per match

Manta FC

1.35

Deportivo Cuenca

1.56

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Manta FC-0.05on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

63%

Manta FC or Deportivo Cuenca

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

63%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

73%

Manta FC 2+ goals

38%

Manta FC 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

50%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.05 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Manta FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Manta FC scores more

37%

level

26%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

37%

Manta FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Bustos

Deportivo Cuenca · G

8.9

Match Events

29'

Mateo Maccari

41'

Stalin Morocho

45+1'

Liberman Torres

46'

C. Luna Tobar← S. Morocho

61'

L. Arroyo← J. Ordonez

61'

L. Mancinelli← L. Estupinan

65'

D. Cabezas← F. Ospitaleche

71'

Daniel ValenciaPenalty confirmed

71'

Agustin Gomez

76'

D. Noboa← M. Maccari

76'

N. Leguizamon← A. Rodriguez

80'

M. Acosta← D. Quintero

80'

J. Chala← L. B. Torres Nazareno

80'

M. Valencia← B. Ramirez

82'

L. Gustavino↳ C. Luna Tobar

86'

R. Ortiz← G. Bartora

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantaDeportivo

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots14

5Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots14

6On Target4

7Off Target8

5Blocked2

10Inside Box9

8Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

443Total Passes358

357Accurate Passes268

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2