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Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manta FC
Manta FC
D. Dorregaray 56'
8/7/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 3Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca54%
×Draw24%
Manta FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.69
Manta FC
0.99

Deportivo Cuenca creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.37
Manta FC
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.09
Manta FC
2.01

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less
Manta FC-0.22scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
78%
Deportivo Cuenca or Manta FC
76%
Draw or Manta FC
46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
29%
Manta FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
24%
Manta FC 1+ goals
63%
Manta FC 2+ goals
26%
Manta FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
71%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Manta FC defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.69

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
54%
level
24%
Manta FC scores more
22%

Deportivo Cuenca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Vinicio Angulo
43'
Ronny Biojo
46'
F. Jourdan← C. Orejuela
56'
D. Dorregaray↳ F. Jourdan
58'
Hamilton Piedra
61'
D. Patiño← I. Trelles
61'
C. Cuero← G. Bustamante
66'
Denilson Bolanos
76'
M. Orlando← L. Chicaiza
76'
E. Tovo← R. Biojo
78'
Joel Quintero
80'
Alexander Mendoza
84'
M. Romero← J. Quintero
89'
P. Larrea← C. Penilla

Possession

62%Deportivo

Shots

10Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoManta
Overview
62%Possession38%
10Total Shots5
9Corners1
17Fouls21
Shots
10Total Shots5
2On Target2
8Off Target3
Passing
62%Possession38%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls21
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta FC

Deportivo Cuenca beat Manta FC 1-0 in Liga Pro on August 7, 2021.

Goals: D. Dorregaray (56').

Deportivo Cuenca controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.