Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manta FC vs Deportivo Cuenca — Copa Ecuador 2022

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
J. Carcelen 27'
P. Magnin 45'
L. Mancinelli 38'
D. Luna 1'
7/22/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · 2nd RoundEstadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Manta FC40%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Cuenca34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.42
Deportivo Cuenca
1.29

Manta FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.33
Deportivo Cuenca
1.25

allows per match

Manta FC
1.33
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
66%
Manta FC or Deportivo Cuenca
74%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
60%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
76%
Manta FC 2+ goals
41%
Manta FC 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
54%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.33 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.25 + Manta FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Manta FC scores more
40%
level
26%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
34%

Manta FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
D. Luna
27'
J. Carcelen
38'
L. Mancinelli
45'
P. Magnin
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Cuenca beat Manta FC 3-1 in Copa Ecuador on July 22, 2024.

Goals: D. Luna (1'), J. Carcelen (27'), L. Mancinelli (38'), P. Magnin (45').

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.