Mansfield Town 1–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northampton

A. Cook 74'

H. Smith 84'

12/21/2019

League Two · Round 22One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Mansfield Town41%

×Draw26%

Northampton33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Mansfield Town

1.42

Northampton

1.23

Mansfield Town creates 15% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 88 away

1.60

creates per match

1.24

1.22

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

67%

Mansfield Town or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

59%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

20%

Northampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

76%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

41%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

17%

Northampton 1+ goals

71%

Northampton 2+ goals

35%

Northampton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

56%

Northampton (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Northampton attack 1.24 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

41%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

33%

Mansfield Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Cook

Mansfield Town · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

36'

38'

56'

56'

59'

62'

H. Smith← P. Anderson

63'

A. Williams← A. McCormack

69'

N. Maynard← D. Rose

72'

Andy Cook

74'

A. Cook↳ M. Benning

80'

A. Smith← W. Tomlinson

80'

J. Martin← M. Harriman

82'

84'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldNorthampton

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots9

0Corners7

17Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots9

3On Target3

12Off Target3

3Blocked3

10Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

288Total Passes259

151Accurate Passes134

52%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4