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Mansfield Town vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
Preview
14:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
9/26/2026League OneLeague One · Round 8One Call Stadium
Big match
46%
Mansfield Town
model favours
46%23%31%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Mansfield Town46%
×Draw23%
Leyton Orient31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.79
Leyton Orient
1.45

Mansfield Town creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.77
Leyton Orient
1.05

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.84
Leyton Orient
1.81

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par
Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
69%
Mansfield Town or Leyton Orient
77%
Draw or Leyton Orient
54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
25%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
83%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
53%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
26%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
77%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
42%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
59%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
46%
level
23%
Leyton Orient scores more
31%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Mansfield Town sit 10, Leyton Orient 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Mansfield Town
Balanced
Leyton Orient
Balanced
48%Possession52%
71%Pass accuracy71%
11.8Shots11.2
1.37xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mansfield TownLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Mansfield Town
3
Draws
5
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 40%
0–04–12–30–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWDWW
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mansfield Town host Leyton Orient

September 26, 2026: Mansfield Town take on Leyton Orient in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mansfield Town host Leyton Orient at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.