Mansfield Town 1–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Leyton Orient

D. Keillor-Dunn 10'

R. Sotiriou 31'

C. Kelman 17'

4/25/2023

League Two · Round 36One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Mansfield Town42%

×Draw26%

Leyton Orient32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.19

Mansfield Town

1.40

Leyton Orient

1.19

Mansfield Town creates 18% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 94 away

1.60

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

68%

Mansfield Town or Leyton Orient

74%

Draw or Leyton Orient

58%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

20%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

75%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

41%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

17%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

70%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

33%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

57%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

42%

level

26%

Leyton Orient scores more

32%

Mansfield Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

D. Keillor-Dunn

Mansfield Town · F

7.7

Match Events

10'

D. Keillor-Dunn↳ H. Boateng

17'

C. Kelman

21'

Kieran Wallace

28'

R. Harbottle← E. Hewitt

31'

R. Sotiriou↳ K. Sadlier

45+6'

46'

50'

54'

62'

66'

69'

G. Moncur← R. Sotiriou

69'

A. Drinan← K. Sadlier

71'

G. Maris← S. Quinn

80'

O. Clarke← H. Boateng

80'

W. Swan← L. Akins

82'

Sam Sargeant

86'

S. Duke-McKenna← C. Kelman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldLeyton

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots9

7Corners1

16Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target2

3Off Target4

9Blocked3

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

444Total Passes355

327Accurate Passes249

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0