Mansfield Town 2–3 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Leyton Orient

G. Maris 62'

D. Dwyer 3'

C. Kelman 69', 54'

D. Markanday 39'

4/8/2025

League One · Round 38One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Mansfield Town46%

×Draw23%

Leyton Orient31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.45

Mansfield Town

1.79

Leyton Orient

1.45

Mansfield Town creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.77

creates per match

1.05

1.84

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Leyton Orient

1.05

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Leyton Orient

1.81

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

69%

Mansfield Town or Leyton Orient

77%

Draw or Leyton Orient

54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

25%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

83%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

53%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

26%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

77%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

42%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

59%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

46%

level

23%

Leyton Orient scores more

31%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Kelman

Leyton Orient · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

D. Dwyer↳ E. Hewitt

25'

Elliott Hewitt

39'

D. Markanday↳ R. Williams

54'

C. Kelman↳ J. Donley

58'

Jordan Brown

60'

Baily Cargill

61'

A. Kilgour← E. Hewitt

61'

H. Boateng← K. Baccus

61'

62'

69'

73'

78'

78'

80'

82'

D. Pratley← D. Markanday

82'

86'

86'

90+6'

90'

D. Ball← S. Clare

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldLeyton

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots6

3Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots6

3On Target3

3Off Target1

6Blocked2

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

350Total Passes444

240Accurate Passes336

69%Pass Accuracy76%

Discipline

18Fouls11

5Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1