Leyton Orient 3–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Mansfield Town

E. Galbraith 32'

R. Williams 17'

J. Brown 6'

2/11/2025

League One · Round 16Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Leyton Orient38%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Leyton Orient

1.23

Mansfield Town

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

0.98

1.31

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Mansfield Town

0.98

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Mansfield Town

1.28

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par

Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

66%

Leyton Orient or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

62%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

35%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

68%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

32%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

53%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

38%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

34%

Leyton Orient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

E. Galbraith

Leyton Orient · D

8.9

Match Events

6'

J. Brown↳ E. Galbraith

17'

R. Williams↳ J. Brown

26'

E. Hewitt← A. Flint

32'

E. Galbraith

37'

Alfie Kilgour

46'

K. Baccus← A. Kilgour

56'

Caylan Vickers

61'

Jordan Brown

69'

W. Evans← J. Rhodes

69'

S. McLaughlin← C. Vickers

69'

G. Maris← L. Reed

73'

Lucas Akins

73'

C. Kelman← D. Markanday

73'

D. Ball← J. Brown

76'

T. James← J. Donley

86'

S. Perkins← R. Williams

86'

88'

89'

89'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonMansfield

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots7

5Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots7

7On Target4

2Off Target1

1Blocked2

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

551Total Passes388

457Accurate Passes306

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards6

2Offsides4