Mansfield Town 2–2 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hartlepool

R. Harbottle 59'

G. Lapslie 51'

J. Umerah 89', 62'

9/30/2022

League Two · Round 12One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mansfield Town50%

×Draw24%

Hartlepool26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Mansfield Town

1.69

Hartlepool

1.14

Mansfield Town creates 48% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 81 away

1.60

creates per match

1.05

1.22

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

74%

Mansfield Town or Hartlepool

76%

Draw or Hartlepool

50%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

27%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

82%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

50%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

24%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

68%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

32%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

66%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

50%

level

24%

Hartlepool scores more

26%

Mansfield Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Umerah

Hartlepool · F

8.2

Match Events

37'

George Maris

46'

B. Paterson← R. Tumilty

46'

C. Cooke← M. Ndjoli

51'

G. Lapslie↳ K. Gordon

59'

R. Harbottle

61'

J. Umerah← M. Shelton

62'

J. Umerah

75'

J. Hamilton← W. McDonald

83'

83'

86'

89'

89'

90+6'

90'

90+1'

J. Perch← R. Harbottle

90'

J. Law← G. Maris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldHartlepool

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots8

11Corners1

11Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target3

3Off Target2

5Blocked3

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

416Total Passes283

267Accurate Passes128

64%Pass Accuracy45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool

Mansfield Town and Hartlepool drew 2-2 in League Two on September 30, 2022.

Goals: G. Lapslie (51'), R. Harbottle (59'), J. Umerah (62', 89').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.

Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool