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Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
G. Maris 66'
J. Bowery 62'
J. O'Toole 55'
N. Featherstone 51'
L. Molyneux 25'
12/26/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 23One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Mansfield Town50%
×Draw24%
Hartlepool26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.69
Hartlepool
1.14

Mansfield Town creates 48% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 81 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Hartlepool
1.05

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Hartlepool
1.78

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Hartlepool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
74%
Mansfield Town or Hartlepool
76%
Draw or Hartlepool
50%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
27%
Hartlepool wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
82%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
50%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
24%
Hartlepool 1+ goals
68%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
32%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
66%
Hartlepool (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
50%
level
24%
Hartlepool scores more
26%

Mansfield Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. MarisMansfield TownMansfield Town · M
8.6

Match Events

25'
L. Molyneux↳ M. Daly
38'
Ben Killip
40'
Neill Byrne
51'
N. Featherstone
53'
R. Ogle← J. Sterry
55'
J. O'Toole↳ G. Maris
62'
J. Bowery↳ E. Hewitt
63'
T. Burey← M. Cullen
66'
G. Maris↳ J. Law
76'
G. Holohan← M. Daly
81'
T. Sinclair← G. Maris
89'
J. Gale← R. Oates
90+1'
Jason Law
90+6'
Nicky Featherstone

Possession

54%Mansfield

Shots

22Mansfield

Pass accuracy

52%Mansfield

Statistics

MansfieldHartlepool
Overview
54%Possession46%
22Total Shots5
12Corners2
11Fouls12
Shots
22Total Shots5
8On Target3
11Off Target1
3Blocked1
10Inside Box3
12Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
425Total Passes367
296Accurate Passes239
70%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides4

League Two: Mansfield Town 3–2 Hartlepool

Mansfield Town beat Hartlepool 3-2 in League Two on December 26, 2021.

Goals: L. Molyneux (25'), N. Featherstone (51'), J. O'Toole (55'), J. Bowery (62'), G. Maris (66').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (54%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.