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Hartlepool vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
L. Molyneux 43'
J. Grey 41'
J. Perch 25'
G. Lapslie 21'
3/29/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 30The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool34%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.18
Mansfield Town
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 141 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
61%
Hartlepool or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
66%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
14%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
69%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
33%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
12%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
72%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
36%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
47%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hartlepool scores more
34%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
39%

Mansfield Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
B. KillipHartlepoolHartlepool · G
7.9

Match Events

21'
G. Lapslie↳ J. Bowery
24'
J. Law← J. Murphy
25'
J. Perch↳ G. Lapslie
41'
J. Grey
43'
L. Molyneux↳ N. Featherstone
53'
J. White← L. Molyneux
57'
George Lapslie
67'
R. Oates← S. Quinn
73'
James Perch
79'
T. Crawford← I. Fletcher
79'
M. Shelton← B. Morris
90+3'
Oliver Hawkins
90'
S. McLaughlin← J. Bowery

Possession

47%Hartlepool

Shots

10Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

48%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolMansfield
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots23
1Corners3
7Fouls18
Shots
10Total Shots23
6On Target9
2Off Target8
2Blocked6
7Inside Box17
3Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
395Total Passes436
285Accurate Passes335
72%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
7Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls18
0Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Mansfield Town

Hartlepool and Mansfield Town drew 2-2 in League Two on March 29, 2022.

Goals: G. Lapslie (21'), J. Perch (25'), J. Grey (41'), L. Molyneux (43').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (53%) and registered 23 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.