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Mansfield Town vs Doncaster — League One 2025

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
Preview
14:00
Doncaster
Doncaster
8/15/2026League OneLeague One · Round 1One Call Stadium
Big match
54%
Mansfield Town
model favours
54%24%22%

Doncaster win just 17% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mansfield Town54%
×Draw24%
Doncaster22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.75
Doncaster
1.02

Mansfield Town creates 72% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.76
Doncaster
0.84

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.20
Doncaster
1.75

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
78%
Mansfield Town or Doncaster
76%
Draw or Doncaster
46%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
30%
Doncaster wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
83%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
52%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
25%
Doncaster 1+ goals
64%
Doncaster 2+ goals
27%
Doncaster 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
71%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.76 + Doncaster defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Doncaster attack 0.84 + Mansfield Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
54%
level
24%
Doncaster scores more
22%

Mansfield Town at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Mansfield Town play Attack-heavy, Doncaster Defensively solid
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Mansfield Town outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Mansfield Town
Attack-heavy
Doncaster
Defensively solid
42%PossessionBiggest gap50%
71%Pass accuracy70%
13.0Shots12.3
1.68xG1.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mansfield TownDoncaster

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Mansfield Town
2
Draws
1
Doncaster
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 80%
2–01–21–13–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WDWWD
Doncaster
WWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mansfield Town vs Doncaster — Match Preview

Mansfield Town face Doncaster on August 15, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mansfield Town host Doncaster at One Call Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.