Mansfield Town 1–2 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Doncaster

S. McLaughlin 57'

O. Bailey 90', 76'

8/9/2025

League One · Round 2One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Mansfield Town56%

×Draw23%

Doncaster21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.01

Mansfield Town

1.79

Doncaster

1.01

Mansfield Town creates 77% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 36 away

1.76

creates per match

0.83

1.20

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.76

Doncaster

0.83

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.20

Doncaster

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

79%

Mansfield Town or Doncaster

77%

Draw or Doncaster

44%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

31%

Doncaster wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

83%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

53%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

26%

Doncaster 1+ goals

64%

Doncaster 2+ goals

27%

Doncaster 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

72%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.76 + Doncaster defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Doncaster attack 0.83 + Mansfield Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

56%

level

23%

Doncaster scores more

21%

Mansfield Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Bailey

Doncaster · D

9.3

Match Events

19'

Kyle McAdam

46'

S. McLaughlin← K. McAdam

55'

Charlie Crew

57'

S. McLaughlin↳ B. Cargill

61'

R. Gotts← H. Clifton

62'

B. Sharp← B. Hanlan

62'

D. Ajayi← C. Crew

67'

G. Maris← D. Dwyer

67'

R. Oates← W. Evans

67'

N. Moriah-Welsh← R. Hendry

68'

J. Gibson← G. Middleton

68'

J. Senior← J. Maxwell

76'

O. Bailey↳ L. Molyneux

83'

J. Bowery← K. Knoyle

90+7'

Jordan Bowery

90'

O. Bailey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldDoncaster

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots13

0.77Expected Goals (xG)2.29

2Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target2

2Off Target7

2Blocked4

4Inside Box12

3Outside Box1

Passing

41%Possession59%

278Total Passes416

156Accurate Passes296

56%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Doncaster

Doncaster beat Mansfield Town 2-1 in League One on August 9, 2025.

Goals: S. McLaughlin (57'), O. Bailey (76', 90').

Doncaster controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield.

Mansfield Town vs Doncaster — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mansfield Town vs Doncaster