Doncaster 2–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mansfield Town

J. Ironside 76'

T. Nixon 20'

G. Maris 80'

L. Reed 42'

8/15/2023

League Two · Round 3Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Doncaster33%

×Draw25%

Mansfield Town41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.46

Doncaster

1.29

Mansfield Town

1.46

Mansfield Town creates 13% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 48 away

1.47

creates per match

1.73

1.19

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Doncaster

1.47

Mansfield Town

1.73

allows per match

Doncaster

1.19

Mansfield Town

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

59%

Doncaster or Mansfield Town

75%

Draw or Mansfield Town

67%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

15%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

72%

Doncaster 2+ goals

37%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

77%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

43%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

45%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.19 · 73 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Mansfield Town defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mansfield Town attack 1.73 + Doncaster defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Doncaster scores more

33%

level

25%

Mansfield Town scores more

41%

Mansfield Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

L. Reed

Mansfield Town · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

J. Bowery← A. Kilgour

20'

T. Nixon

23'

H. Boateng← C. Johnson

41'

R. Wood← T. Anderson

42'

L. Reed↳ R. Oates

43'

Hiram Boateng

46'

W. Swan← A. Lewis

58'

G. Maris← H. Boateng

64'

Thomas Nixon

69'

M. Faal← Z. Westbrooke

75'

T. Roberts← L. Molyneux

76'

J. Ironside

80'

G. Maris↳ S. Quinn

88'

O. Clarke← S. Quinn

89'

D. Sotona← J. Ironside

90+4'

Will Swan

90+3'

Ollie Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterMansfield

Overview

33%Possession67%

11Total Shots21

3Corners7

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots21

5On Target8

3Off Target6

3Blocked7

6Inside Box16

5Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

273Total Passes555

149Accurate Passes432

55%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3