Doncaster 0–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

J. Russell 70'

R. Oates 50'

4/3/2026

League One · Round 41Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Doncaster31%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.30

Doncaster

1.08

Mansfield Town

1.30

Mansfield Town creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 25 away

1.21

creates per match

1.16

1.44

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Doncaster

1.21

Mansfield Town

1.16

allows per match

Doncaster

1.44

Mansfield Town

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

58%

Doncaster or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

69%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

12%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

66%

Doncaster 2+ goals

29%

Doncaster 3+ goals

10%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

73%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

37%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

43%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.21 + Mansfield Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mansfield Town attack 1.16 + Doncaster defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Doncaster scores more

31%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

42%

Mansfield Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Russell

Mansfield Town · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

Adedeji Oshilaja

44'

Matthew Pearson

50'

R. Oates↳ F. Blake-Tracy

65'

G. Middleton← B. Hanlan

70'

J. Russell↳ G. Abbott

72'

J. Gibson← J. Sterry

72'

H. Clifton← E. Lee

77'

V. Adeboyejo← R. Oates

81'

R. Hendry← G. Abbott

81'

N. Moriah-Welsh← J. Russell

83'

G. Broadbent← R. Gotts

83'

J. McGrath← H. Adelakun

89'

Jay McGrath

90+1'

A. Lewis← L. Reed

90+2'

O. Irow← W. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterMansfield

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots8

2Corners6

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots8

0On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked2

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

406Total Passes282

288Accurate Passes161

71%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4

League One: Doncaster 0–2 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Doncaster 2-0 in League One on April 3, 2026.

Goals: R. Oates (50'), J. Russell (70').

Doncaster controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster.

Doncaster vs Mansfield Town — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Doncaster 0–2 Mansfield Town