Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1–1 First Vienna

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

First Vienna

E. Rajdl 73'

M. Konrad 24'

9/17/2021

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 8Aulandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf35%

×Draw24%

First Vienna40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mannsdorf-GroßenzersdorfExpected goals in this matchFirst Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.56

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.44

First Vienna

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 26 away

2.02

creates per match

1.96

1.16

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

2.02

First Vienna

1.96

allows per match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.16

First Vienna

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par

First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf ↓

First Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or draw

60%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf or First Vienna

76%

Draw or First Vienna

65%

Winning margin

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+

16%

First Vienna wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals

76%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals

42%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals

18%

First Vienna 1+ goals

79%

First Vienna 2+ goals

46%

First Vienna 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)

47%

First Vienna (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 104 matches

First Vienna away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 2.02 + First Vienna defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.44

First Vienna attack 1.96 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more

35%

level

24%

First Vienna scores more

40%

First Vienna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Konrad

60'

M. Szotkowski← L. Edelhofer

64'

R. Strasser← V. Düzgün

73'

E. Rajdl

82'

A. Flögel← J. Velisek

90'

B. Udovcic← I. Ouédraogo

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

First

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Flögel

82'▲A. Flögel←▼J. Velisek

90'▲B. Udovcic←▼I. Ouédraogo

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf substitutes

FlögelUdovcicRöhrerAliloskiPessl

Manager: A. Zellhofer

60'▲M. Szotkowski←▼L. Edelhofer

64'▲R. Strasser←▼V. Düzgün

First Vienna substitutes

SzotkowskiStrasserAbazovicWostryKazanSchimandl