First Vienna 2–0 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

First Vienna

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

M. Konrad 28'

K. Abazović 25'

4/29/2022

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 21Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

First Vienna51%

×Draw23%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

First ViennaExpected goals in this matchMannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.25

First Vienna

1.83

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.25

First Vienna creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 107 away

2.20

creates per match

1.49

1.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

First Vienna

2.20

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.49

allows per match

First Vienna

1.00

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw

74%

First Vienna or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

77%

Draw or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

49%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+

28%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals

84%

First Vienna 2+ goals

54%

First Vienna 3+ goals

28%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals

71%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals

36%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)

66%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 2.20 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 1.49 + First Vienna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

First Vienna scores more

51%

level

23%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more

26%

First Vienna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

K. Abazović

28'

M. Konrad

54'

C. Aussenegg← C. Bangura

54'

D. Oroshi← J. Velisek

65'

O. Bacher← L. Edelhofer

65'

S. Baldia← D. Luxbacher

70'

A. Flögel← I. Ouédraogo

70'

D. Puster← E. Rajdl

75'

D. Alar← M. Konrad

75'

V. Düzgün← T. Šimkovič

80'

E. Harrer← M. Ortner

86'

M. Szotkowski← N. Zatl

First

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Konrad

▼

Zatl

▼

Edelhofer

Manager: A. Zellhofer

65'▲O. Bacher←▼L. Edelhofer

65'▲S. Baldia←▼D. Luxbacher

75'▲D. Alar←▼M. Konrad

75'▲V. Düzgün←▼T. Šimkovič

86'▲M. Szotkowski←▼N. Zatl

First Vienna substitutes

BacherBaldiaAlarDüzgünSzotkowskiJäger

Manager: T. Flögel

54'▲C. Aussenegg←▼C. Bangura

54'▲D. Oroshi←▼J. Velisek

70'▲A. Flögel←▼I. Ouédraogo

70'▲D. Puster←▼E. Rajdl

80'▲E. Harrer←▼M. Ortner

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf substitutes

AusseneggOroshiFlögelPusterHarrerRöhrer