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Manica Diamonds vs Harare City — Premier Soccer League 2026

Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Harare City
Harare City
10/23/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 31Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Manica Diamonds45%
×Draw32%
Harare City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manica Diamonds
1.10
Harare City
0.71

Manica Diamonds creates 55% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 37 away

creates per match

Manica Diamonds
1.06
Harare City
0.81

allows per match

Manica Diamonds
0.60
Harare City
1.14

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par
Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Harare City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw
76%
Manica Diamonds or Harare City
68%
Draw or Harare City
55%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
19%
Harare City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
67%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
30%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
10%
Harare City 1+ goals
51%
Harare City 2+ goals
16%
Harare City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
65%
Harare City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.06 + Harare City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Harare City attack 0.81 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more
45%
level
32%
Harare City scores more
24%

Manica Diamonds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Manica Diamonds 2–0 Harare City

Manica Diamonds beat Harare City 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare.