Manica Diamonds 3–1 Harare City: Result & Stats

Manica Diamonds

FT

3 – 1

Harare City

4/7/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 2Gibbo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Manica Diamonds46%

×Draw32%

Harare City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manica DiamondsExpected goals in this matchHarare City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.69

Manica Diamonds

1.13

Harare City

0.69

Manica Diamonds creates 64% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 34 away

1.07

creates per match

0.79

0.58

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Manica Diamonds

1.07

Harare City

0.79

allows per match

Manica Diamonds

0.58

Harare City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Harare City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Harare City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw

78%

Manica Diamonds or Harare City

68%

Draw or Harare City

54%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+

20%

Harare City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals

68%

Manica Diamonds 2+ goals

31%

Manica Diamonds 3+ goals

11%

Harare City 1+ goals

50%

Harare City 2+ goals

15%

Harare City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)

67%

Harare City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Harare City away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Harare City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Harare City attack 0.79 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more

46%

level

32%

Harare City scores more

22%

Manica Diamonds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff