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Harare City vs Manica Diamonds — Premier Soccer League 2026

Harare City
Harare City
FT
1 – 2
Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
8/17/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Harare City40%
×Draw32%
Manica Diamonds28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Harare City
1.02
Manica Diamonds
0.80

Harare City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 96 away

creates per match

Harare City
0.94
Manica Diamonds
0.69

allows per match

Harare City
0.91
Manica Diamonds
1.09

finishing

Harare City+0.00on par
Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harare City ↓

Manica Diamonds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Harare City or draw
72%
Harare City or Manica Diamonds
68%
Draw or Manica Diamonds
60%

Winning margin

Harare City wins by 2+
16%
Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Harare City 1+ goals
64%
Harare City 2+ goals
27%
Harare City 3+ goals
8%
Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
55%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
19%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Harare City (draw refunded)
59%
Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harare City at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Manica Diamonds away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harare City attack 0.94 + Manica Diamonds defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Manica Diamonds attack 0.69 + Harare City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Harare City scores more
40%
level
32%
Manica Diamonds scores more
28%

Harare City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Harare City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Harare City 1–2 Manica Diamonds

Manica Diamonds beat Harare City 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.