Manchester United W 2–2 Manchester City W

Manchester United W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Manchester City W

5/4/2025

FA WSL · Round 21Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Manchester United W39%

×Draw24%

Manchester City W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester United WExpected goals in this matchManchester City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.58

Manchester United W

1.61

Manchester City W

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 83 away

2.29

creates per match

2.31

0.85

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Manchester United W

2.29

Manchester City W

2.31

allows per match

Manchester United W

0.85

Manchester City W

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Manchester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Manchester City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw

62%

Manchester United W or Manchester City W

76%

Draw or Manchester City W

61%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+

19%

Manchester City W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals

80%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

48%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

22%

Manchester City W 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City W 2+ goals

47%

Manchester City W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

51%

Manchester City W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.85 · 73 matches

Manchester City W away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 2.29 + Manchester City W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Manchester City W attack 2.31 + Manchester United W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manchester United W scores more

39%

level

24%

Manchester City W scores more

38%

Manchester United W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff