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Manchester City W vs Manchester United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Manchester United W
Manchester United Wadvanced
4/13/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · Semi-finalsJoie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Manchester City W53%
×Draw20%
Manchester United W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
2.43
Manchester United W
1.71

Manchester City W creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
4.15
Manchester United W
2.80

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.62
Manchester United W
0.70

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Manchester United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
73%
Manchester City W or Manchester United W
80%
Draw or Manchester United W
47%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
33%
Manchester United W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
91%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
69%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
43%
Manchester United W 1+ goals
82%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
51%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
66%
Manchester United W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 4.15, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 4.15 + Manchester United W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 2.43

Manchester United W attack 2.80 + Manchester City W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Manchester City W scores more
53%
level
20%
Manchester United W scores more
27%

Manchester City W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester City W vs Manchester United W

Manchester United W beat Manchester City W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Joie Stadium in Manchester.