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Manchester City W vs Manchester United W — FA WSL 2018

Manchester City W
Manchester City W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Manchester United W
Manchester United W
11/15/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 9Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Manchester City W54%
×Draw22%
Manchester United W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City W
1.96
Manchester United W
1.26

Manchester City W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 73 away

creates per match

Manchester City W
2.91
Manchester United W
1.68

allows per match

Manchester City W
0.84
Manchester United W
1.01

finishing

Manchester City W+0.00on par
Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City W ↓

Manchester United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Manchester City W or draw
76%
Manchester City W or Manchester United W
78%
Draw or Manchester United W
46%

Winning margin

Manchester City W wins by 2+
31%
Manchester United W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Manchester City W 1+ goals
86%
Manchester City W 2+ goals
58%
Manchester City W 3+ goals
31%
Manchester United W 1+ goals
72%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
36%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manchester City W (draw refunded)
69%
Manchester United W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City W at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.01 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City W attack 2.91 + Manchester United W defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.96

Manchester United W attack 1.68 + Manchester City W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Manchester City W scores more
54%
level
22%
Manchester United W scores more
24%

Manchester City W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Manchester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester City W vs Manchester United W

Manchester City W beat Manchester United W 3-0 in FA WSL on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.