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Manchester United vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Manchester United
Manchester United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
B. Fernandes 90' (pen)
B. Mbeumo 57'
J. Cullen 27' (OG)
J. Anthony 66'
L. Foster 55'
8/30/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Manchester United64%
×Draw21%
Burnley16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester United
2.05
Burnley
0.91

Manchester United creates 125% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Manchester United
2.02
Burnley
0.72

allows per match

Manchester United
1.09
Burnley
2.08

finishing

Manchester United-0.11scores less
Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw
84%
Manchester United or Burnley
79%
Draw or Burnley
36%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+
39%
Burnley wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals
87%
Manchester United 2+ goals
61%
Manchester United 3+ goals
33%
Burnley 1+ goals
60%
Burnley 2+ goals
23%
Burnley 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)
80%
Burnley (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.02 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.05

Burnley attack 0.72 + Manchester United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Manchester United scores more
64%
level
21%
Burnley scores more
16%

Manchester United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Mason MountPenalty cancelled
27'
J. CullenOwn goal
31'
J. Zirkzee← M. Cunha
46'
K. Mainoo← M. Mount
55'
L. Foster↳ J. Bruun Larsen
57'
B. Mbeumo↳ D. Dalot
65'
L. Tchaouna← H. Mejbri
66'
J. Anthony
72'
B. Sesko← Casemiro
76'
Bruno Fernandes
76'
J. Laurent← L. Ugochukwu
83'
J. Worrall← H. Ekdal
83'
O. Sonne← J. Bruun Larsen
85'
N. Mazraoui← L. Yoro
89'
Loum Tchaouna
90+2'
Amad DialloPenalty confirmed
90+7'
Kyle Walker
90+7'
Josh Laurent
90+6'
Lyle Foster
90+4'
Jaidon Anthony
90'
B. FernandesPenalty

Possession

62%Manchester

Shots

26Manchester

Pass accuracy

54%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterBurnley
Overview
62%Possession38%
26Total Shots6
3.63Expected Goals (xG)1.20
7Corners1
9Fouls9
Shots
26Total Shots6
6On Target3
13Off Target1
7Blocked2
19Inside Box5
7Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
508Total Passes318
418Accurate Passes225
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
-0.82Goals Prevented-0.82
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Premier League: Manchester United 3–2 Burnley

Manchester United beat Burnley 3-2 in Premier League on August 30, 2025.

Goals: J. Cullen (27' o.g.), L. Foster (55'), B. Mbeumo (57'), J. Anthony (66'), B. Fernandes (90' pen).

Manchester United controlled possession (62%) and registered 26 shots to 6.

The match was played at Old Trafford in Manchester.