Manchester United 3–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

E. Cavani 90+3'

M. Greenwood 84', 48'

J. Tarkowski 50'

4/18/2021

Premier League · Round 32Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Manchester United63%

×Draw21%

Burnley16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.92

Manchester United

2.02

Burnley

0.92

Manchester United creates 120% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

1.96

creates per match

0.72

1.13

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Manchester United

1.96

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Manchester United

1.13

Burnley

2.08

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.05on par

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

84%

Manchester United or Burnley

79%

Draw or Burnley

37%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

38%

Burnley wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

87%

Manchester United 2+ goals

60%

Manchester United 3+ goals

33%

Burnley 1+ goals

60%

Burnley 2+ goals

23%

Burnley 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

79%

Burnley (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.13 · 22 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 1.96 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

Burnley attack 0.72 + Manchester United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Manchester United scores more

63%

level

21%

Burnley scores more

16%

Manchester United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Greenwood

Manchester United · M

8.3

Match Events

26'

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

46'

E. Cavani← Fred

48'

M. Greenwood↳ M. Rashford

50'

J. Tarkowski↳ A. Westwood

57'

Jack Cork

84'

D. van de Beek← M. Rashford

84'

M. Greenwood↳ P. Pogba

88'

M. Vydra← J. Brownhill

88'

J. Rodriguez← J. Guðmundsson

89'

James Tarkowski

90+3'

E. Cavani↳ D. van de Beek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterBurnley

Overview

69%Possession31%

17Total Shots10

8Corners3

9Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

9On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked3

15Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

610Total Passes266

540Accurate Passes196

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4