Burnley 2–2 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Manchester United

J. Anthony 66'

A. Heaven 13' (OG)

B. Sesko 60', 50'

1/7/2026

Premier League · Round 21Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley29%

×Draw24%

Manchester United47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.69

Burnley

1.29

Manchester United

1.69

Manchester United creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

0.96

creates per match

1.44

1.94

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Manchester United

1.44

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Manchester United

1.62

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

53%

Burnley or Manchester United

76%

Draw or Manchester United

71%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

12%

Manchester United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Manchester United 1+ goals

82%

Manchester United 2+ goals

50%

Manchester United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

39%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.62 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Manchester United defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.29

Manchester United attack 1.44 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Burnley scores more

29%

level

24%

Manchester United scores more

47%

Manchester United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. HeavenOwn goal

41'

Hannibal Mejbri

50'

B. Sesko↳ B. Fernandes

58'

J. Anthony← H. Mejbri

60'

B. Sesko↳ P. Dorgu

61'

M. Mount← B. Fernandes

61'

L. Yoro← A. Heaven

66'

J. Anthony↳ M. Edwards

74'

74'

76'

84'

90+5'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyManchester

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots30

0.24Expected Goals (xG)2.55

2Corners6

9Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots30

1On Target10

1Off Target13

5Blocked7

6Inside Box21

1Outside Box9

Passing

35%Possession65%

315Total Passes593

240Accurate Passes519

76%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

-1.12Goals Prevented-1.12

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0