Manchester United 2–2 Burnley: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

V. Lindelöf 90+2'

P. Pogba 87' (pen)

C. Wood 81'

A. Barnes 51'

1/29/2019

Premier League · Round 24Old Trafford

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Manchester United65%

×Draw20%

Burnley16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.95

Manchester United

2.15

Burnley

0.95

Manchester United creates 126% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 21 away

2.19

creates per match

0.79

1.11

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Manchester United

2.19

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Burnley

2.10

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.26scores less

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

84%

Manchester United or Burnley

80%

Draw or Burnley

35%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

41%

Burnley wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

88%

Manchester United 2+ goals

63%

Manchester United 3+ goals

36%

Burnley 1+ goals

61%

Burnley 2+ goals

25%

Burnley 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

80%

Burnley (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 30 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.19 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.15

Burnley attack 0.79 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Manchester United scores more

65%

level

20%

Burnley scores more

16%

Manchester United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Pogba

Manchester United · M

8.2

Match Events

51'

A. Barnes↳ J. Cork

60'

Ashley Barnes

63'

J. Lingard← Andreas Pereira

67'

A. Sánchez← R. Lukaku

72'

Juan Mata

73'

Charlie Taylor

78'

J. Guðmundsson← D. McNeil

81'

C. Wood↳ A. Westwood

87'

P. PogbaPenalty

90'

Jack Cork

90+2'

V. Lindelöf

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterBurnley

Overview

74%Possession26%

28Total Shots6

11Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

28Total Shots6

9On Target4

11Off Target0

8Blocked2

15Inside Box3

13Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

650Total Passes228

568Accurate Passes140

87%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4