Manchester City 1–0 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

P. Foden 5'

4/20/2019

Premier League · Round 35Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Manchester City56%

×Draw23%

Tottenham21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.05

Manchester City

1.86

Tottenham

1.05

Manchester City creates 77% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

2.11

creates per match

1.17

0.94

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Tottenham

1.62

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

79%

Manchester City or Tottenham

77%

Draw or Tottenham

44%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

32%

Tottenham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

84%

Manchester City 2+ goals

55%

Manchester City 3+ goals

28%

Tottenham 1+ goals

65%

Tottenham 2+ goals

28%

Tottenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

73%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Manchester City scores more

56%

level

23%

Tottenham scores more

21%

Manchester City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Ederson Moraes

Manchester City · G

8.4

Match Events

5'

P. Foden↳ S. Agüero

38'

Fernandinho← K. De Bruyne

61'

V. Wanyama← E. Dier

66'

L. Sané← S. Agüero

69'

D. Rose← D. Alli

78'

Llorente← T. Alderweireld

85'

David Silva← P. Foden

86'

Victor Wanyama

90'

Raheem Sterling

90'

Jan Vertonghen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterTottenham

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots10

4Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target4

6Off Target3

5Blocked3

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

582Total Passes379

509Accurate Passes284

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2