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Manchester City vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tottenham
Tottenham
2/14/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Manchester City56%
×Draw23%
Tottenham21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
1.86
Tottenham
1.05

Manchester City creates 77% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.11
Tottenham
1.17

allows per match

Manchester City
0.94
Tottenham
1.62

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more
Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
79%
Manchester City or Tottenham
77%
Draw or Tottenham
44%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
32%
Tottenham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
84%
Manchester City 2+ goals
55%
Manchester City 3+ goals
28%
Tottenham 1+ goals
65%
Tottenham 2+ goals
28%
Tottenham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
73%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Manchester City scores more
56%
level
23%
Tottenham scores more
21%

Manchester City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Tottenham

Tottenham beat Manchester City 2-1 in Premier League on February 14, 2016.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.