Manchester City 2–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

K. De Bruyne 82'

S. Agüero 52'

12/29/2019

Premier League · Round 20Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Manchester City67%

×Draw20%

Sheffield Utd13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.76

Manchester City

2.04

Sheffield Utd

0.76

Manchester City creates 168% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

2.11

creates per match

0.59

0.94

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Sheffield Utd

0.59

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Sheffield Utd

1.97

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Sheffield Utd-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

87%

Manchester City or Sheffield Utd

80%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

33%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

42%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

87%

Manchester City 2+ goals

60%

Manchester City 3+ goals

33%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

53%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

18%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

84%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.97 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sheffield Utd attack 0.59 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Manchester City scores more

67%

level

20%

Sheffield Utd scores more

13%

Manchester City at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

8.1

Match Events

52'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

59'

Bernardo Silva

59'

D. McGoldrick← C. Robinson

62'

İ. Gündoğan← Bernardo Silva

75'

O. McBurnie← M. Bešić

81'

P. Foden← S. Agüero

82'

K. De Bruyne↳ R. Mahrez

83'

B. Sharp← L. Mousset

85'

Enda Stevens

88'

Gabriel Jesus← R. Sterling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterSheffield

Overview

72%Possession28%

16Total Shots8

8Corners5

5Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target0

6Off Target6

6Blocked2

6Inside Box7

10Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

871Total Passes314

789Accurate Passes233

91%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5